Bitcoin "buy the dip" vs SIP: a rupee backtest
By BtcMedia Research · Updated · Data to Oct 2026
"Buy the dip" sounds smart: hold back part of your SIP each month and put it all in when Bitcoin falls. This page tests that on real rupee prices from the 1st of every month, Jan 2014 to Oct 2026, with exactly the same money as a plain SIP. The result: a 20%-below-peak rule beat the plain SIP in only 11% of 118 three-year periods, because cash waiting for a dip often missed the rallies. Test your own rule below.
Test your rule
Result for this period
Oct 2023 → Oct 2026
- Total put in
- ₹3,60,000
- Plain SIP value
- ₹5,05,540
- Dip buyer value
- ₹4,91,333
- Difference
- −2.8%
- Months bought on a dip
- 14
- Cash still waiting at the end
- ₹0
Across every start month (3 years)
- Dip buyer won
- 11%
- Median difference
- −4.2%
- Worst / Best
- −31.8% / +1.7%
- Periods
- 118
Orange = plain SIP, white = dip buyer, dots = dip buys, grey = rupees put in.
Every rule: how often the dip buyer won (50% held back)
| Rule | Dip | 3 yr: won | 3 yr: median | 5 yr: won | 5 yr: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below peak | 10% | 33% | −0.5% | 14% | −0.8% |
| Below peak | 20% | 11% | −4.2% | 4% | −5.3% |
| Below peak | 30% | 12% | −5.1% | 9% | −7.1% |
| Below peak | 40% | 20% | −3.7% | 19% | −6.2% |
| Below peak | 50% | 29% | −7.1% | 31% | −7.1% |
| Fall in a month | 10% | 11% | −2% | 15% | −2.6% |
| Fall in a month | 20% | 0% | −24.2% | 0% | −26.9% |
| Fall in a month | 30% | 5% | −23.2% | 0% | −24.8% |
| Fall in a month | 40% | 1% | −32.1% | 0% | −37.6% |
| Fall in a month | 50% | 1% | −32.1% | 0% | −37.6% |
118 (3-year) and 94 (5-year) start months. Median = how far the dip buyer's final value was from the plain SIP.
By period (20% below peak, 50% held back)
| Period | Periods | Won | Tied | Median | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 142 | 37% | 25% | 0% | −42.8% | +7.1% |
| 2 years | 130 | 28% | 6% | −3.4% | −37.6% | +2.5% |
| 3 years | 118 | 11% | 0% | −4.2% | −31.8% | +1.7% |
| 5 years | 94 | 4% | 0% | −5.3% | −29.5% | +0.4% |
| 7 years | 70 | 0% | 0% | −5.2% | −28.2% | −1.7% |
"Tied" = the market stayed in a dip the whole time, so the dip buyer invested everything every month anyway.
How much to hold back: more cash, bigger misses
| Held back | 3 yr: won | 3 yr: median | 3 yr: worst | 5 yr: median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 10% | −2.1% | −15.9% | −2.6% |
| 50% | 11% | −4.2% | −31.8% | −5.3% |
| 100% | 11% | −8.5% | −63.6% | −10.5% |
By start year (3 years, 20% below peak, 50% held back)
| Start year | Periods | Won | Median difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 12 | 0% | −2.8% |
| 2015 | 12 | 0% | −8% |
| 2016 | 12 | 0% | −22.6% |
| 2017 | 12 | 17% | −6.9% |
| 2018 | 12 | 0% | −3.6% |
| 2019 | 12 | 0% | −6.4% |
| 2020 | 12 | 8% | −9.9% |
| 2021 | 12 | 83% | +0.7% |
| 2022 | 12 | 0% | −2.8% |
| 2023 | 10 | 0% | −2.3% |
How it is calculated
Both investors get the same rupees every month. The plain SIP invests all of it on the 1st. The dip buyer invests part and keeps the rest as cash; in any month that counts as a dip, the whole cash pile is invested at that month's price.
A dip = the price is at least X% below the highest 1st-of-month price since Jan 2014, or at least X% below last month. At the end of the period both holdings are valued at that month's 1st-of-month price, and any cash still waiting (with interest) is added. Every start month is counted, so periods overlap.
Limits: monthly data only (falls inside a month are not seen), peaks before 2014 are not included, and fees, the Indian exchange premium and tax are left out. On sale both pay 30% + 4% cess on the gain; interest on cash is taxed at your slab.
FAQ
Is buying the dip better than a SIP in Bitcoin?
Usually not, on real rupee data since Jan 2014. Holding back 50% for 20%-below-peak dips beat the plain SIP in 11% of 3-year periods and 4% of 5-year periods; over 7 years, 0%. The median gap over 3 years was −4.2%.
Why does the dip buyer fall behind?
Bitcoin has risen most of the time. Cash waiting for a dip buys nothing during rallies, and when a dip finally comes the price is often higher than where the SIP had already bought.
Does any dip rule work?
Over 5 years the best rule tested (below peak 10%) still had a median gap of −0.8% and won 14% of periods. A "fell 20% in one month" rule left cash idle for years (5-year median −26.9%).
When did the dip buyer win?
Mostly for periods starting just before a big crash and recovery: start years 2021 (3-year periods).
Where does the data come from?
Bitstamp's BTC/USD close on the 1st of each month, converted with the ECB USD/INR reference rate (via Frankfurter). The dataset is free to download.
Data: Bitstamp public API (BTC/USD daily OHLC) · ECB euro reference rates via Frankfurter (USD/INR). Download: monthly BTC/INR dataset · methodology. Updated 2026-10-24.
Not financial advice. This is history only; past results do not predict future ones. Bitcoin is volatile and you can lose money.
Related: SIP vs lump sum · Bitcoin SIP calculator · SIP vs Nifty SIP · Price prediction reality check · Halving cycle returns · Crypto tax calculator · हिंदी में
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- Tool launched: Bitcoin buy the dip vs plain SIP backtest in rupees. Same money each month; hold back 25-100% for dips (X% below peak or X% fall in a month), every start month since Jan 2014 over 1 to 7 years, win rate, median gap, by-rule, by-period and by-start-year tables, from Bitstamp × ECB monthly prices.