Bitcoin SIP vs Nifty, gold and RD SIP (XIRR, after tax)
By BtcMedia Research · Updated · Data to Sept 2026
Same monthly amount, same dates, four choices: Bitcoin, the Nifty 50 (NIFTYBEES), gold (GOLDBEES) and a bank recurring deposit. We ran a SIP from every possible start month using real month-end prices from Dec 2013 to Sept 2026. Across 94 five-year SIPs, Bitcoin's median XIRR was 61.0% against 14.3% for the Nifty 50, but its worst three-year SIP returned −0.1% a year and the falls along the way were far deeper. After tax at the 30% slab, the five-year medians were 48.6% for Bitcoin and 14.3% for the Nifty.
Your SIP
Result
60 × ₹5,000 = ₹3,00,000, Sept 2021 → Sept 2026
| Option | Final value | XIRR | Tax | XIRR after tax |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | ₹6,82,906 | 33.6% | ₹1,19,467 | 25.5% |
| Nifty 50 | ₹3,37,773 | 4.7% | ₹0 | 4.7% |
| Gold (ETF) | ₹6,16,837 | 29.3% | ₹41,714 | 26.4% |
| RD | ₹3,54,954 | 6.7% | ₹17,146 | 4.7% |
Value and XIRR before tax; the after-tax column assumes you sell everything in the last month. Includes 4% cess.
XIRR: 33.6% / 4.7%
■ Bitcoin · ■ Nifty 50 · ■ Gold (ETF) · ■ RD · - - Invested
A SIP from every start month: summary by length
| Length | SIPs tested | Median XIRR: BTC / Nifty / gold / RD | Worst XIRR: BTC / Nifty | BTC beat Nifty (pre / after tax) | Median after tax: BTC / Nifty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years | 118 | 80.1% / 13.9% / 11.2% / 6.7% | −0.1% / −12.5% | 94% / 90% | 60.2% / 13.7% |
| 5 years | 94 | 61.0% / 14.3% / 12.3% / 6.7% | 19.4% / −2.7% | 100% / 100% | 48.6% / 14.3% |
| 7 years | 70 | 62.4% / 14.7% / 11.9% / 6.7% | 31.1% / 8.8% | 100% / 100% | 52.5% / 13.8% |
| 10 years | 34 | 79.4% / 14.5% / 15.6% / 6.7% | 51.1% / 10.2% | 100% / 100% | 71.7% / 13.4% |
₹5,000 a month, RD at 6.5%, tax at the 30% slab. Windows overlap, so they are not independent experiments.
Five-year SIPs started in January (₹5,000 a month)
| Start | Invested | Bitcoin | Nifty 50 | Gold | RD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 → Jan 2019 | ₹3,00,000 | ₹18,97,873 80.7% · net 65.9% | ₹3,85,164 9.9% · net 9.9% | ₹3,38,445 4.8% · net 4.1% | ₹3,54,954 6.7% · net 4.7% |
| 2015 → Jan 2020 | ₹3,00,000 | ₹38,98,649 118.9% · net 100.3% | ₹3,91,769 10.6% · net 10.6% | ₹4,00,188 11.5% · net 10.0% | ₹3,54,954 6.7% · net 4.7% |
| 2016 → Jan 2021 | ₹3,00,000 | ₹57,75,975 142.0% · net 121.3% | ₹4,20,332 13.4% · net 13.1% | ₹4,30,524 14.4% · net 12.8% | ₹3,54,954 6.7% · net 4.7% |
| 2017 → Jan 2022 | ₹3,00,000 | ₹22,58,347 89.5% · net 73.7% | ₹4,69,384 17.9% · net 17.4% | ₹3,84,302 9.8% · net 8.7% | ₹3,54,954 6.7% · net 4.7% |
| 2018 → Jan 2023 | ₹3,00,000 | ₹7,46,829 37.5% · net 28.6% | ₹4,28,084 14.2% · net 14.1% | ₹4,08,857 12.3% · net 10.8% | ₹3,54,954 6.7% · net 4.7% |
| 2019 → Jan 2024 | ₹3,00,000 | ₹10,10,259 50.8% · net 39.8% | ₹4,72,826 18.2% · net 17.6% | ₹3,94,441 10.9% · net 9.6% | ₹3,54,954 6.7% · net 4.7% |
| 2020 → Jan 2025 | ₹3,00,000 | ₹14,32,397 67.0% · net 53.8% | ₹4,47,920 16.0% · net 15.8% | ₹4,45,569 15.8% · net 13.9% | ₹3,54,954 6.7% · net 4.7% |
| 2021 → Jan 2026 | ₹3,00,000 | ₹6,64,499 32.5% · net 24.5% | ₹4,03,233 11.8% · net 11.7% | ₹7,51,241 37.7% · net 33.8% | ₹3,54,954 6.7% · net 4.7% |
How it is calculated
Each instalment buys at the month-end close (last trading day; last complete day for Bitcoin). All units are valued at the close of the valuation month. XIRR is the yearly rate at which all the instalments grow into the final value.
Tax assumes everything is sold in the valuation month, in one financial year. Bitcoin: 30% on the gain (virtual digital asset, no loss set-off). Nifty ETF: units held 12 months or less at 20%, longer at 12.5% on gains above ₹1.25 lakh. Gold ETF: up to 12 months at your slab, longer at 12.5% with no exemption. RD interest: your slab (banks tax it every year; here it is taxed once at the end). 4% cess on all; surcharge, the 87A rebate and your other equity gains are left out.
The RD rate is held constant for the whole period, while real bank rates moved. Prices on Indian crypto exchanges have often been a little above the global price, and 1% TDS is deducted on crypto sales (credited against the tax). ETF prices are adjusted closes, so fund costs are already deducted and Nifty dividends are included.
FAQ
Has a Bitcoin SIP beaten a Nifty SIP in India?
On real prices from Dec 2013 to Sept 2026, usually yes: Bitcoin's XIRR was higher than the Nifty 50's in 94% of three-year SIPs, 100% of five-year SIPs and 100% of ten-year SIPs. Bitcoin has also fallen more than 70% from its peak several times, and past returns do not predict future returns.
What changes after tax?
Bitcoin gains are taxed at a flat 30% plus cess, while Nifty ETF units held over 12 months pay 12.5% only on gains above ₹1.25 lakh. For five-year SIPs at the 30% slab, Bitcoin still came out ahead in 100% of windows, but the gap narrowed: median 48.6% vs 14.3% after tax.
How did gold and an RD do?
Over five-year SIPs, gold (GOLDBEES) had a median XIRR of 12.3% and a 6.5% RD 6.7%. An RD never ends below what you put in; 1% of three-year Bitcoin SIPs did.
Where does the data come from?
Bitcoin: Bitstamp BTC/USD daily close × ECB USD/INR reference rate. Nifty 50 and gold: NSE adjusted closing prices of NIFTYBEES and GOLDBEES (Nippon India ETFs) via Yahoo Finance. Refreshed on every deploy; a month is added once it ends.
Sources: Income-tax Act, 2025, s.198 (LTCG 12.5% above ₹1,25,000) · Income-tax Act, 2025, s.196 (short-term gains on equity funds) · Income Tax Department: tax on VDA · Bitstamp public API · ECB rates via Frankfurter · Nippon India ETF Nifty 50 BeES · Nippon India ETF Gold BeES. Download: monthly dataset · methodology. Updated 2026-10-24.
Not financial advice. Backtests show the past only. Bitcoin is volatile and you can lose money. The tax figures are a simplified estimate; check your own case with a CA.
Related: Buy the dip vs SIP · Bitcoin SIP calculator · Bitcoin SIP vs lump sum · Bitcoin vs gold vs Nifty vs FD (lump sum) · Crypto tax calculator · हिंदी में
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- Tool launched: monthly SIP in Bitcoin vs Nifty 50 ETF vs gold ETF vs bank RD on the same month-end dates since Jan 2014, XIRR before and after Indian tax (VDA 30%, equity 20%/12.5% above ₹1.25 lakh, gold ETF slab/12.5%, RD at slab), every start month for 3/5/7/10-year SIPs and five-year SIPs by start year.