Bitcoin SIP vs lump sum (₹ backtest)
By BtcMedia Research · Updated · Data to Oct 2026
Same rupees, two ways: all of it in the first month, or equal monthly instalments (SIP/DCA). We tested every start month from Jan 2014 to Oct 2026 with real monthly prices. Across 142 twelve-month windows, the SIP beat the lump sum in only 34% of them, but it ended in a loss less often (27% of windows vs 31%).
Your backtest
Your window
- Monthly instalment
- ₹10,000
- Oct 2025 → Oct 2026
- SIP won
- SIP value
- ₹1,37,180
- Lump-sum value
- ₹93,165
Across all windows
- Windows tested
- 142
- SIP won
- 34%
- SIP vs lump sum (median)
- −19%
- Ended in a loss (SIP / lump)
- 27% / 31%
- Worst return (SIP / lump)
- −53% / −72%
- Best return (SIP / lump)
- +590% / +1,261%
Bitstamp × ECB monthly prices, Jan 2014–Oct 2026. Before fees and tax.
■ SIP better · ■ lump sum better (bar height = SIP edge, capped at ±200%)
Summary by period (the same for any rupee amount)
| Period | Windows | SIP won | Median edge | SIP loss | Lump loss | Worst SIP | Worst lump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 months | 148 | 38% | −6% | 35% | 38% | −50% | −62% |
| 12 months | 142 | 34% | −19% | 27% | 31% | −53% | −72% |
| 24 months | 130 | 27% | −39% | 14% | 15% | −46% | −50% |
| 36 months | 118 | 25% | −52% | 1% | 0% | −1% | +13% |
| 48 months | 106 | 18% | −55% | 0% | 0% | +57% | +69% |
| 60 months | 94 | 9% | −66% | 0% | 0% | +67% | +48% |
Median edge = SIP final value ÷ lump-sum final value − 1. Loss = ended below the rupees put in.
By start year (12 months)
| Start year | Windows | SIP won | Median SIP return | Median lump return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 12 | 100% | +90,41,030% | +61,00,748% |
| 2015 | 12 | 8% | +1,88,58,011% | +2,62,65,696% |
| 2016 | 12 | 0% | +3,36,03,832% | +4,63,59,220% |
| 2017 | 12 | 8% | +1,68,07,374% | +3,72,55,112% |
| 2018 | 12 | 92% | +1,73,05,369% | +1,45,07,457% |
| 2019 | 12 | 25% | +1,50,07,179% | +2,00,35,102% |
| 2020 | 12 | 0% | +2,51,05,491% | +4,97,88,711% |
| 2021 | 12 | 58% | +83,74,605% | +78,54,351% |
| 2022 | 12 | 58% | +1,52,65,879% | +1,37,08,604% |
| 2023 | 12 | 0% | +1,95,50,147% | +2,69,35,675% |
| 2024 | 12 | 0% | +1,61,43,486% | +2,04,24,895% |
| 2025 | 10 | 60% | +99,04,242% | +94,39,295% |
How it is calculated
For each window the total is the same. Lump sum: the whole amount at the price on the 1st of the start month. SIP: the amount split equally across the months of the period, bought on the 1st of each month. Both are valued at the price on the 1st of the month after the last instalment (for 12 months: instalments January to December, valued on 1 January of the next year).
Every possible start month is counted, so windows overlap; they are not independent experiments. Fees hit both the same way, so they are left out. Tax (30% + 4% cess on the gain) is also the same rule for both.
Interest option: in a SIP, money not yet invested can sit in savings or an FD, so each later instalment is a little larger. This is pre-tax.
FAQ
Is a Bitcoin SIP better than a lump sum?
On real monthly rupee prices from Jan 2014 to Oct 2026, the lump sum usually came out ahead: the SIP won 34% of 12-month windows, 25% of 36-month windows and only 9% of 60-month windows. The reason is that the price mostly rose over long periods, so money invested earlier had longer to grow. Past returns do not predict future returns.
So what is the point of a SIP?
Lower risk of bad timing. Over 12-month windows the SIP ended in a loss 27% of the time against 31% for the lump sum, and the worst 12-month result was −53% for the SIP vs −72% for the lump sum. It also suits people who invest from a monthly salary rather than holding a large amount.
Where does the price data come from?
Bitstamp's BTC/USD close on the 1st of each month, converted with the ECB USD/INR reference rate (via Frankfurter). Prices on Indian exchanges have often been a few percent higher; that affects both methods the same way.
Does tax change the answer?
No. Under the Income-tax Act, 2025, gains on virtual digital assets are taxed at 30% plus 4% cess for both methods, with no loss set-off. 1% TDS on each sale is a credit against that tax.
Data: Bitstamp public API (BTC/USD daily OHLC) × ECB euro reference rates via Frankfurter (USD/INR). Download: monthly BTC/INR dataset · methodology. Updated 2026-10-24.
Not financial advice. Backtests show the past only. Bitcoin is volatile and you can lose money. Indian exchange prices may differ from the global price used here.
Related: Buy the dip vs SIP · Bitcoin price prediction reality check · Bitcoin SIP calculator · If you had invested ₹X in Bitcoin · Bitcoin vs gold vs Nifty vs FD · SIP vs Nifty SIP · Profit & tax calculator · हिंदी में
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- Tool launched: Bitcoin SIP vs lump sum backtest in rupees. Every start month since Jan 2014, 6 to 60-month periods, SIP win rate, loss rates, worst/best returns and a by-start-year table, from Bitstamp × ECB monthly prices.