Over the last five years, a ₹5,000 monthly Bitcoin SIP ended well ahead of a Nifty 50 SIP even after India’s heavier crypto tax: ₹5.63 lakh in hand against ₹3.38 lakh, on the same ₹3 lakh put in. But the tax gap was large, the falls along the way were far deeper, and a plain gold ETF SIP on the same dates did slightly better than Bitcoin after tax.
We ran the numbers on real month-end prices, the same way our Bitcoin SIP vs Nifty SIP calculator does, and applied the tax each option actually pays in India.
The setup
- Amount: ₹5,000 at each month-end close, 60 instalments from 30 September 2021 to 31 August 2026, ₹3,00,000 in total.
- Valued on: 30 September 2026, the last complete month in our data.
- Bitcoin: Bitstamp BTC/USD daily close × the ECB USD/INR reference rate, from our monthly INR dataset. Bitcoin closed September at $83,562.58, or ₹80,07,802 at ₹95.83 per dollar.
- Nifty 50: Nippon India ETF Nifty 50 BeES (NIFTYBEES) NSE closes, which already include fund costs. NIFTYBEES went from ₹190.11 to ₹258.50 over the five years, while the Nifty 50 index moved from 17,618 to 22,620 (NSE closes via Yahoo Finance).
- Gold and RD for context: Nippon India ETF Gold BeES (GOLDBEES) and a bank recurring deposit at an assumed 6.5% a year.
Five years of ₹5,000 a month
| Option | Value on 30 Sep 2026 | Gain | Tax if sold (30% slab) | In hand | XIRR before / after tax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | ₹6,82,906 | ₹3,82,906 | ₹1,19,467 | ₹5,63,439 | 33.6% / 25.5% |
| Nifty 50 ETF | ₹3,37,773 | ₹37,773 | ₹0 | ₹3,37,773 | 4.7% / 4.7% |
| Gold ETF | ₹6,16,837 | ₹3,16,837 | ₹41,714 | ₹5,75,123 | 29.3% / 26.4% |
| RD at 6.5% | ₹3,54,954 | ₹54,954 | ₹17,146 | ₹3,37,808 | 6.7% / 4.7% |
XIRR is the yearly return that turns the 60 instalments into the final value. Tax assumes everything is sold in September 2026, in one financial year, with 4% cess and no surcharge.
Five years is a short and recent window for the Nifty: NIFTYBEES fell about 7% in the twelve months to September 2026 (₹277.52 to ₹258.50), which dragged the SIP’s return down to 4.7% a year. Across every five-year window since 2014 in our dataset, the Nifty SIP’s median XIRR was 14.4%, and Bitcoin’s was 62.0%.
Why the Nifty SIP paid no tax
The two pots are taxed under completely different rules. Under the Income-tax Act, 2025, in force since 1 April 2026, the old rates carried over: the government’s FAQ confirms 20% on short-term gains from listed equity and equity funds, and 12.5% on long-term gains above ₹1,25,000 a year. Crypto is a virtual digital asset (VDA): a flat 30% on the gain plus 4% cess (31.2%), no deduction except cost, no loss set-off, and 1% TDS on the sale value. Our crypto tax vs share tax guide has the full comparison.
In a SIP, each instalment has its own holding period. Here is how the Nifty pot’s ₹37,773 gain splits:
- 48 instalments held over 12 months: long-term gain of ₹42,107.
- Last 12 instalments: a short-term loss of ₹4,334, because the Nifty fell over that year. A short-term loss can be set off against a long-term gain, leaving ₹37,773.
- ₹37,773 is below the ₹1.25 lakh exemption, so the tax is zero.
The Bitcoin pot has no such split. Holding period does not matter for a VDA: the whole ₹3,82,906 gain is taxed at 31.2%, which is ₹1,19,467. On a sale of ₹6,82,906, the exchange also deducts ₹6,829 as 1% TDS, which counts towards that bill. You can check the deduction with the crypto TDS calculator.
How much of each gain went to tax
The tax gap changes with the size of the gain. Same ₹5,000 a month, valued on 30 September 2026:
| SIP length | Nifty gain | Nifty tax | Share of gain taxed | Bitcoin gain | Bitcoin tax | Share of gain taxed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years | −₹3,524 | ₹0 | Loss, can be carried forward | ₹68,891 | ₹21,494 | 31.2% |
| 5 years | ₹37,773 | ₹0 | 0% | ₹3,82,906 | ₹1,19,467 | 31.2% |
| 7 years | ₹1,55,248 | ₹3,932 | 2.5% | ₹12,60,128 | ₹3,93,160 | 31.2% |
| 10 years | ₹4,17,222 | ₹37,989 | 9.1% | ₹95,73,618 | ₹29,86,969 | 31.2% |
For equity, the ₹1.25 lakh allowance takes a big bite out of the tax on small and mid-sized SIPs, and it resets every financial year. For Bitcoin, the 31.2% applies from the first rupee and never falls with time. The 3-year row shows the other half of the rule: the Nifty loss can be set off against other capital gains, while a Bitcoin loss would have been ignored entirely, as our loss set-off explainer shows.
The part a final number hides
The final values say nothing about what it felt like to hold each SIP. We tracked each pot’s value every month against the money put in so far:
| Bitcoin SIP | Nifty 50 SIP | |
|---|---|---|
| Worst point vs money put in | −47% (June 2022) | −7% (June 2022) |
| Highest pot value | ₹7,83,974 (Sep 2025, ₹2.45 lakh put in) | ₹3,59,163 |
| Biggest fall from a peak | −41% (to ₹4,64,132 by June 2026) | −10% (March 2026) |
Someone who stopped their Bitcoin SIP in mid-2022, or sold in June 2026, would have a very different story from the table above. The end date matters too: on the 30 October 2026 close, Bitcoin was about ₹73.3 lakh ($77,187.27 at ₹94.95), 8.5% below the September close. On that price the same pot is worth about ₹6.25 lakh, or ₹5.24 lakh after tax, below the gold ETF pot’s September figure.
Our holding-period study found that, since 2014, Bitcoin held three years never lost rupees, but two-year holds did. That is history, not a promise.
What this means for a monthly investor
- Compare SIPs after tax, not before. On these five years, tax cut Bitcoin’s XIRR by 8.1 points and the Nifty’s by none.
- Your ₹1.25 lakh equity exemption is shared. If your other mutual fund or share gains already use it, the Nifty SIP above would owe 12.5% plus cess on its long-term gain.
- Volatility, not tax, decided these five years. The Bitcoin pot was worth less than half of what had gone in at one point, and lost 41% from its peak in 2025-26.
- Try your own amount and dates in the Bitcoin SIP calculator and the Bitcoin vs Nifty vs gold vs RD SIP tool, and run any crypto sale through the crypto tax calculator. If you haven’t set aside emergency money first, start with last week’s money basics guide.
BtcMedia verdict: India’s tax rules give an equity index SIP a large head start, and over these five years Bitcoin’s returns were big enough to overcome it, with falls deep enough to test any holder. Past returns, especially from a five-year window, do not predict the next five.
How we calculated this: ₹5,000 invested at each month-end close from September 2021 to August 2026, valued at the 30 September 2026 close; Bitcoin from Bitstamp × ECB USD/INR, NIFTYBEES and GOLDBEES NSE closes. Tax at 30% (VDA), 20% short-term and 12.5% long-term above ₹1.25 lakh (equity ETF), gold ETF 12.5% long-term, RD interest at the 30% slab, all plus 4% cess; no surcharge, no other gains assumed. Data checked 31 October 2026, 11:30 AM IST.
FAQ
Is a Bitcoin SIP taxed differently from a mutual fund SIP in India?
Yes. Each Bitcoin sale pays a flat 31.2% on the gain, with 1% TDS on the sale value and no loss set-off. An equity fund or index ETF SIP pays 20% on units held 12 months or less and 12.5% above ₹1.25 lakh a year on units held longer, plus cess.
Does a long-running Bitcoin SIP get a lower tax rate?
No. India has no long-term rate for crypto. A coin bought ten years ago pays the same 31.2% as one bought last week.
Did a Bitcoin SIP beat a Nifty SIP after tax?
On our data, in every five-year window since 2014, at the 30% slab. The gap and the risk varied a lot, and the past five years also saw the Bitcoin pot fall 47% below the money put in.
This article is for information only and is not investment or tax advice. Past returns do not predict future returns. Figures use published prices as of 30 September 2026 and the tax rules in force on 31 October 2026; your slab, other gains, exchange prices and fees will change the numbers. Speak to a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.