Dhanteras falls on Friday, 6 November 2026, five days from now (Drik Panchang), and the usual question is back: gold or bitcoin? Instead of a forecast, here is what the last twelve months actually did to ₹1 lakh in each, and what the tax rules do to the result.
The one-year scoreboard
We pulled CoinGecko’s daily INR prices for bitcoin and for PAX Gold (PAXG), a token backed by one troy ounce of London gold, from 1 November 2025 to 31 October 2026. PAXG tracks the international gold price converted to rupees. It leaves out India’s import duty and GST, so jewellers’ rates run higher, but the percentage move is a fair guide.
| Date | Bitcoin (₹ per BTC) | Gold (₹ per troy oz) | ₹1 lakh in BTC | ₹1 lakh in gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2025 | 97,26,062 | 3,54,814 | 1,00,000 | 1,00,000 |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 78,78,912 | 3,89,910 | 81,008 | 1,09,891 |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 61,02,987 | 4,89,235 | 62,749 | 1,37,885 |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 55,88,245 | 3,81,596 | 57,456 | 1,07,548 |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 80,17,329 | 3,99,335 | 82,431 | 1,12,548 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | 73,51,438 | 3,69,799 | 75,585 | 1,04,223 |
Bitcoin fell 24.4% in rupees over the year. Gold rose 4.2%. The gap was widest in the first half of 2026: gold hit its yearly high of about ₹5,04,401 an ounce on 29 January, when the ₹1 lakh stake would have been worth about ₹1,42,159. Bitcoin’s low came on 1 July near ₹55.9 lakh, leaving the bitcoin stake near ₹57,456.
Two things stand out. Gold gave back most of its January gain, so its final 4.2% hides a ride from +42% to roughly flat. And bitcoin recovered about 32% from its July low, but that only took it back to three-quarters of where it started.
Where tax makes the gap wider
Indian tax law treats the two very differently.
- Bitcoin: gains are taxed at a flat 30% plus 4% cess, and each sale carries 1% TDS. Selling the ₹75,585 stake today would have ₹756 deducted as TDS, all of it refundable through your return since there’s no gain. But the ₹24,415 loss cannot be set off against any other income, not even another crypto gain, and cannot be carried forward. You can test this with our crypto loss set-off calculator.
- Gold: held under 24 months, the ₹4,223 gain is added to your income and taxed at your slab rate. At the 30% slab plus cess that is about ₹1,318. Held 24 months or more, physical gold is taxed at 12.5% long-term capital gains. A gold loss can be set off against other capital gains, which a crypto loss cannot.
So the losing asset here also carries the stricter tax rules. In a year when bitcoin rises and gold falls, the 30% flat rate still means bitcoin keeps less of each rupee of profit.
What it means for Indian investors
The past year says nothing certain about the next one. Bitcoin’s own Diwali history shows years of huge gains, which you can see in our Bitcoin price on Diwali tool. What the year does show is the size of the swings: a 42% fall for bitcoin and a 42% rise for gold within the same twelve months, both partly reversed.
If you are splitting a Dhanteras budget, our Bitcoin vs gold vs Nifty vs FD calculator lets you run your own dates and amounts. Buy bitcoin only through an FIU-IND-registered exchange, and size it so a 40% drop wouldn’t force you to sell.
BtcMedia verdict: Over the twelve months before this Dhanteras, gold protected money and bitcoin didn’t, and India’s tax rules made bitcoin’s loss a pure loss. That is a record of one year, not a prediction.
How we calculated this: CoinGecko daily INR prices for bitcoin and PAX Gold, 1 November 2025 to 31 October 2026, read at about 5 AM IST on 1 November 2026. ₹1 lakh values are price ratios; no fees, making charges or GST included.
FAQ
Is gold or bitcoin better for Dhanteras 2026? Neither is guaranteed. Over the last year gold returned 4.2% in rupees and bitcoin lost 24.4%, but bitcoin has had much bigger up-years in the past.
Can I set off a bitcoin loss against a gold gain in India? No. A crypto loss can’t be set off against any income, including gold or share gains, and can’t be carried forward.
Why does PAXG differ from the gold price at my jeweller? PAXG follows the international gold price converted to rupees. Indian retail gold adds import duty, 3% GST and, for jewellery, making charges.
This article is for information only and is not financial or tax advice.