Bitcoin spent Saturday near $80,559 (about ₹76.5 lakh on CoinGecko), after failing again near $84,000–86,000. The next leg probably won’t be decided by crypto news. Between Tuesday and Thursday, an Israeli election, a Federal Reserve decision and earnings from two of the world’s largest tech companies all land within about 48 hours.
For Indian holders there is a practical wrinkle that most coverage ignores: almost every one of these events happens while India sleeps. If you trade on an Indian exchange, the moves will be priced in by the time you check your phone.
The week in IST
We converted the official UTC schedules into Indian Standard Time (UTC+5:30). Dates come from the Federal Reserve calendar, the Newsquawk week ahead and a WEEX schedule built from company announcements.
| Event | Official time | India time (IST) |
|---|---|---|
| China’s Fifth Plenum opens (runs to 29 Oct) | Mon 26 Oct | Monday |
| Israel’s Knesset election | Tue 27 Oct | Results likely overnight into Wednesday |
| Fed rate decision | Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 UTC | Wed 28 Oct, 11:30 PM |
| Fed press conference | Wed 28 Oct, 18:30 UTC | Thu 29 Oct, 12:00 AM |
| Alphabet earnings call | Wed 28 Oct, 20:30 UTC | Thu 29 Oct, 2:00 AM |
| Microsoft earnings call | Wed 28 Oct, 21:30 UTC | Thu 29 Oct, 3:00 AM |
| US midterm elections | Tue 3 Nov | Results through Wednesday 4 Nov |
The point of the table: the Fed decision, the press conference and two earnings calls are stacked inside a 3.5-hour window that starts at 11:30 PM IST. Bitcoin trades through all of it.
What the Fed is expected to do
According to Newsquawk, a Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75–4.00%, matching the roughly 10% hike chance priced by CME futures. That follows a 25bps rise in September. The same poll says every respondent expects another hike later, and Pimco expects a December move.
So a hold is not the news. The tone is. A press conference that leans hard toward December would tighten financial conditions, which has tended to weigh on risk assets like bitcoin. A softer tone would remove one overhang. Nobody can tell you which one you’ll get, and we won’t pretend to.
The levels, in rupees
Traders on X have flagged $80,000 and $76,000 as support and $84,000–86,000 as resistance. Those are chart opinions, not facts about the future, but it helps to know what they mean in INR. We used USD/INR of about 94.95, implied by CoinGecko’s BTC prices in both currencies on 24 October.
| Level (USD) | Approx. INR per BTC | Distance from $80,559 |
|---|---|---|
| $76,000 | ₹72.2 lakh | −5.7% |
| $80,000 | ₹76.0 lakh | −0.7% |
| $84,000 | ₹79.8 lakh | +4.3% |
| $86,000 | ₹81.7 lakh | +6.8% |
Indian exchange prices usually sit at a small premium or discount to these, so check our premium tracker and the live BTC/INR page before acting on any number.
What it means for Indian investors
A week like this tempts people into late-night trades. The tax maths argues against reacting. Gains on bitcoin are taxed at a flat 30% plus cess, 1% TDS is cut on every sale through an Indian exchange, and losses can’t be set off against other income. A ₹1 lakh position sold in a panic after a 5.7% midnight drop crystallises a ₹5,700 loss you can’t use, plus ₹943 of TDS held until you file. You can run your own numbers on our loss set-off calculator.
BtcMedia verdict
This is a week to set alerts, not stay awake. If you hold bitcoin as a long-term SIP, the Fed’s tone on Wednesday night changes little about your plan. If you trade with leverage, a 3.5-hour window of stacked events while you sleep is a real risk worth sizing down for. Track the price on our bitcoin page and today’s INR price.
FAQ
What time is the Fed decision in India? 11:30 PM IST on Wednesday 28 October, with the press conference at midnight.
Is the Fed expected to raise rates? Not this week. A Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75–4.00%, though most expect a hike later.
Does a big overnight move change my tax? No. Gains are taxed at 30% plus cess whenever you sell, and crypto losses can’t be set off against other income.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto is volatile; do your own research.